Prediction7 2016

2016 will be the Year of Altra Running!

Altra continues to sponsor some of the best ultra running athletes in the world.  This year they also added sponsorship deals with two of the biggest–in terms of reputation–ultra races in the US.  In June, Altra will be the title shoe sponsor for The Western States Endurance Run–#AltraInSquaw.  In July, they’ll marquee The Hardrock 100.

Also, we just learned that Altra will also be sponsoring one of our local trail running series: Evergreen Trail Runs!

For footwear, Altra expands into cross-country spikes and hiking boots–adding one model of each.  They also continue to grow their casual shoe selection–and will launch a complete apparel line.

All of this is on top of their 3 amazing trail running shoes: Superior, Lone Peak, and Olympus.  All of these see significant updates in 2016.  The Lone Peak 3.0 is shown above.

In case you missed our Prediction Lists from previous posts, here they all are again in one place:

Top7 Men’s Trail Running Shoes  2016 (Predicted)

1. Altra Lone Peak 3.0 (July) – The biggest no-brainer on the list due to our great sales history. v3.0 has stickier rubber and a more durable upper.
2. Pearl Izumi Trail N3 (March) – I think Pearl fans will have a hard time picking between Trail N3, Trail N2v3, and Trail M2v3.  N3 comes out first, so it will get a head start on sales. N3 is wider, too, which will help its sales.
3. Altra Olympus 2.0 (now) – Why isn’t Hoka on this Top7 list?  Because everyone will be picking the Olympus! Vibram MegaGrip traction; lighter and more flexible than previous versions; and the “toe-rocker” is smoothed out. These shoes will appeal to anyone looking for cushion; and because of all that cushion, the Zero Drop akin to all Altras isn’t as noticeable or hard to adjust to.
4. Altra Superior 2.16 (Jan) – We’ll have these the week of Jan. 4!  It’s the new version of the 2.0 so we’re trying to figure out what to call it.  I like #Superior2pointNew.  As steady of a lightweight, minimal seller as there could in today’s Cushiony World.
5. Montrail Trans Alps (February) – The surprise of 2016 will come from Montrail.  It’s the most cushioned shoe they’ve ever produced!
6. Pearl Izumi Trail N2 v3 (July) – I’m hoping Trail N3 lovers will also by Trail N2v3’s for shorter runs.
7. Altra Lone Peak 2.5 (now) – Our best-selling 2015 men’s trail shoe! We’ll sell a lot of these between now and July.

Top7 Trail Running Shoes Women 2016 (Predicted)

1. Altra Lone Peak 3.0 (July) – How can we bet against Altra at this point?  It has been crushing the men’s field for a couple years now and finally starting to pay off for women’s feet in 2015.  I can only see a bright future for this brand regardless of gender or foot-shape or heel drop preference: they’re getting that good!
2. Merrell All Out Peak (now) – Our #1 Women’s Trail Shoe of 2015!  I dropped if off the men’s Predicted list because I feel some of the newer shoes (Montrail Trans Alps and Pearl Izumi Trail N3) will fit more men better.  I feel like the Peak from Merrell can compete with any 2016 women’s trail shoe in terms of fit.  It may have more competition from the Sportiva Akasha, and Salomon Wings Pro 2 and Mission 3 though–so it drops a spot to #2.
3. Altra Superior 2.16 (next week!) – Again, Altra can do no wrong…well they’re fixing the original Superior 2.0’s upper with this newer version we call the 2.16. So starting now, Altra can do no wrong!
4. Pearl Izumi Trail N3 (March) – It might be too heavy to compete for top honors, but it fits and feels so nice! I think it will take sales away from the other Pearl Izumi trail shoes causing only one Pearl shoe to make the list in 2016.  But that one shoe could very well be the Trail N2 v3 due out in July!
5. Topo MT2 (now) – Whenever someone wants an Altra Superior, we bring out the Topo MT as well.  It competes well against our top-selling brand and has stolen quite a few sales away from Altra in 2015.  That trend should continue in 2016.  This version launched in November and has been selling well since.
6. New Balance Gobi (July) – The Gobi is essentially the Trail Version of the Road Zante model.  We sold the Women’s Zante way better than the Men’s.  I think that trend will hold for the Women’s Gobi compared to the Men’s.  The colors are cool; it fits great and will function for a wide variety of activities: Ultra running, walking the neighborhood, bootcamp class, road running, etc.
7. Saucony Peregrine 6 (Jan) – If this doesn’t make our best-selling list next year, I think we’ll give up on Saucony trail running shoes altogether! It feels so nice with their new EverRun cushioning.  If we can’t sell it, we simply have a Saucony jinx.

Top 7 Brands 2016 (Predicted)

1. Altra – I just hope they don’t get to be more than 30% of our business–otherwise they’ll force us to stop carrying brands like Sportiva. But in ’16 we’re going to get Altra’s new casual shoes, hiking boots, and cross-country spikes! And the Olympus 2.0 is easily my new favorite shoe.
2. Pearl Izumi – The Road N3 and Road M3 did really well for us in 2015.  That trend should hold up–and voila: Here comes the Trail N3–shown below–due out in March!
3. Salomon – This could be wishful thinking on our part…but the new Wings Pro 2, Mission 3, and Sense Pro 2 should all be easy sellers.
4. Hoka – Hoka’s sales should continue to drop.  I love their shoes, but the style and colors haven’t toned down.  There are too many models that are too similar.  The Challenger ATR has been the easiest to sell, but if we get the new version in February and if REI puts them on sale in October, it will have a very short life at full price.  We’re worried about the Clifton 3.  It feels great, but different than the first 2 versions.  Oh, and Altra beat Hoka to quite possibly the best “Hoka” yet: the Altra Olympus 2.0
5. Topo – The MT v2 will sell well all year to both men and women.  There’s a new super cushy road shoe coming out in 2016, too.  The Runventure has been a steady seller as well.
6. Saucony – Saucony should hold steady for one big reason: EverRun!  Their new cushioning is great!
7. Montrail – Much like Merrell made 2015’s Top7 list on the strength of mostly one shoe, I feel like Montrail will do the same in 2016 with the Trans Alps.  Hopefully we’ll also do well with the Fluid Flex FKT, Caldorado, and Bajada 2.

Happy New Year!!